Friday signal for 27/2/2015/ buy trend on EUR/
USD now this currency is week buy now.
USD now this currency is week buy now.
Thursday, February 26, 2015
EUROUDSD ANALYSIS
1. Greece's GDP falling in the fourth quarter could affect bailout policies
2. European February inflation figures negative, but does it matter now?
3. US fourth quarter GDP to be heavily revised down from 2.6% to 2%
Today’s data calendar is long and heavy with European releases, but none of them are hugely important for the markets. European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy-setting meeting next week (February 5) and the starts of the its bond purchase program should dominate next week, and this is probably keeping the EUR under pressure during the next couple of sessions as well. Next week also sees the latest monthly US employment report.
Greece Q4 Provisional Gross Domestic Production Usually, Greek economic data has little chance of actually moving the major markets. However, with the Greek bailout negotiations dominating European politics and the possibility of forced exit from the EUR, it might be different this time.
Greece's GDP is expected to have decreased by 0.2% after increasing 0.7% in the previous quarter. This would still leave the year-on-year growth figure at 1.7%. It is difficult to say what effect the numbers would have on the markets - weak GDP growth could boost Greece’s negotiation position within the Eurogroup, but on the other hand it could also be interpreted as a sign that reforms and austerity have to be front-loaded.
Also, Greek banks’ loans to the private sector in January will be reported at 10:30 GMT. In December, they fell 3.1% year-on-year.
European February Flash Inflation report the flash consumer price indices for February. In contrast to Greece, Spain’s and Italy’s numbers could actually be important, as both countries are “too big to fail”, and Spain is holding national elections in December, with an anti-austerity left-wing Podemos currently running high in the polls.
Perhaps the markets might be fooled into thinking that deeper deflation could push the ECB to increase its efforts to maintain price stability, or that the European Commission could continue ignoring the budget deficits and violations of the European stability pacts. Thus, signs of a deeper deflation would be EUR-negative.
it is much more probable that the ECB will not change its policy plans, as it would be politically extremely difficult. The naysayers can always argue that the effects will come later, and finally, the latest monetary data from the Eurozone published yesterday suggest that the credit crunch is ending and money supply is increasing.
US Q4 Gross Domestic Production second estimate: The consensus forecast is for a notable downward revision to the last year’s GDP data: 2% growth, after the advance estimate of 2.6% growth. The main culprit for the negative revision is “international developments”, which have led to a stronger USD and weaker sales for US exporters. Also, inventory build-up is expected to have diminished, but that should only have an temporary effect.
Luckily, with improving labour markets and very confident consumers supporting the consumer spending, the GDP behind the headline numbers could be said to be healthier than the revision would suggest.
Yesterday the US January consumer price index showed prices had fallen by 0.1% from a year ago, but the core prices had held up well, and core durable goods orders were better-than-expected. While negative headline inflation is a nuisance, it does not necessarily stop the Federal Reserve from raising rates, perhaps as early as June, as long as the underlying fundamentals are in good shape.
To sum it up, the markets are now taking the possibility of the Fed’s rate hike seriously indeed, while the ECB’s actions are just about to begin. The EURUSD’s breakdown from its recent trading range suggests the pair should remain under selling pressure at least until next week’s ECB meeting. In my opinion the lower US bond yields are not a sign of a “dovish Fed”, but rather the result of yield hunting from global investors. Note that the US Treasury 10 year and 2-year yield spread is at its lowest point since mid-2012, the point of the worst of the euro crisis.
That is the consensus – but looking at the bigger picture, the economic surprise indices of the US and Eurozone show the divergence between the two is currently larger than it has been for years. I expect a reversal – US data should soon begin to surprise positively, while Europe should bring in negative surprises.
2. European February inflation figures negative, but does it matter now?
3. US fourth quarter GDP to be heavily revised down from 2.6% to 2%
Today’s data calendar is long and heavy with European releases, but none of them are hugely important for the markets. European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy-setting meeting next week (February 5) and the starts of the its bond purchase program should dominate next week, and this is probably keeping the EUR under pressure during the next couple of sessions as well. Next week also sees the latest monthly US employment report.
Greece Q4 Provisional Gross Domestic Production Usually, Greek economic data has little chance of actually moving the major markets. However, with the Greek bailout negotiations dominating European politics and the possibility of forced exit from the EUR, it might be different this time.
Greece's GDP is expected to have decreased by 0.2% after increasing 0.7% in the previous quarter. This would still leave the year-on-year growth figure at 1.7%. It is difficult to say what effect the numbers would have on the markets - weak GDP growth could boost Greece’s negotiation position within the Eurogroup, but on the other hand it could also be interpreted as a sign that reforms and austerity have to be front-loaded.
Also, Greek banks’ loans to the private sector in January will be reported at 10:30 GMT. In December, they fell 3.1% year-on-year.
European February Flash Inflation report the flash consumer price indices for February. In contrast to Greece, Spain’s and Italy’s numbers could actually be important, as both countries are “too big to fail”, and Spain is holding national elections in December, with an anti-austerity left-wing Podemos currently running high in the polls.
Perhaps the markets might be fooled into thinking that deeper deflation could push the ECB to increase its efforts to maintain price stability, or that the European Commission could continue ignoring the budget deficits and violations of the European stability pacts. Thus, signs of a deeper deflation would be EUR-negative.
it is much more probable that the ECB will not change its policy plans, as it would be politically extremely difficult. The naysayers can always argue that the effects will come later, and finally, the latest monetary data from the Eurozone published yesterday suggest that the credit crunch is ending and money supply is increasing.
US Q4 Gross Domestic Production second estimate: The consensus forecast is for a notable downward revision to the last year’s GDP data: 2% growth, after the advance estimate of 2.6% growth. The main culprit for the negative revision is “international developments”, which have led to a stronger USD and weaker sales for US exporters. Also, inventory build-up is expected to have diminished, but that should only have an temporary effect.
Luckily, with improving labour markets and very confident consumers supporting the consumer spending, the GDP behind the headline numbers could be said to be healthier than the revision would suggest.
Yesterday the US January consumer price index showed prices had fallen by 0.1% from a year ago, but the core prices had held up well, and core durable goods orders were better-than-expected. While negative headline inflation is a nuisance, it does not necessarily stop the Federal Reserve from raising rates, perhaps as early as June, as long as the underlying fundamentals are in good shape.
To sum it up, the markets are now taking the possibility of the Fed’s rate hike seriously indeed, while the ECB’s actions are just about to begin. The EURUSD’s breakdown from its recent trading range suggests the pair should remain under selling pressure at least until next week’s ECB meeting. In my opinion the lower US bond yields are not a sign of a “dovish Fed”, but rather the result of yield hunting from global investors. Note that the US Treasury 10 year and 2-year yield spread is at its lowest point since mid-2012, the point of the worst of the euro crisis.
That is the consensus – but looking at the bigger picture, the economic surprise indices of the US and Eurozone show the divergence between the two is currently larger than it has been for years. I expect a reversal – US data should soon begin to surprise positively, while Europe should bring in negative surprises.
EURUSD Alert
Market Running
Last:1.13645
Open:1.13628
High:1.13569
Low:1.13643
Day Range:1.14600 - 1.13300
Outlook:Netral
R1:1.1400
R2:1.1460
R3:1.1540
S1:1.1330
S2:1.1260
S3:1.1220
Short Term Trade :
-Buy If Break 1.14000 , Target : 1.14200 ; 1.14400
-Sell If Break 1.13300 , Target : 1.13100 ; 1.12900
Spekulasi :
-Buy On Weakness Area 1.12900 - 1.13000 , Target : 1.13200 ; 1.13400 , SL : 1.12600
Last:1.13645
Open:1.13628
High:1.13569
Low:1.13643
Day Range:1.14600 - 1.13300
Outlook:Netral
R1:1.1400
R2:1.1460
R3:1.1540
S1:1.1330
S2:1.1260
S3:1.1220
Short Term Trade :
-Buy If Break 1.14000 , Target : 1.14200 ; 1.14400
-Sell If Break 1.13300 , Target : 1.13100 ; 1.12900
Spekulasi :
-Buy On Weakness Area 1.12900 - 1.13000 , Target : 1.13200 ; 1.13400 , SL : 1.12600
Wednesday, February 25, 2015
EUR/USD Analysis
EUR/USD is calm on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.13 line in the European session. On the release front, there are no economic events out of the Eurozone, but ECB head Mario Draghi will testify about the ECB Annual Report in the European Parliament. In the US, Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen continues a second day of testimony in Congress. The US will release New Home Sales, with the markets expecting a softer reading in the January report.
Janet Yellen testified before a Senate committee on Tuesday, saying that the Fed was “unlikely” to raise interest rates in the next few months, given current economic conditions. Her remarks seemed aimed at quelling rising speculation about a rate hike sometime in mid-2015, which has helped boost the US dollar’s performance against its major rivals. Yellen noted that the continuing growth should lead to the unemployment rate continuing to fall. The Fed Chair will resume testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, but it’s not likely that Yellen will say anything that could shake up the markets.
On the Eurozone front, Greece’s list of economic reforms was accepted by the country’s creditors on Tuesday, paving the way for an extension of the bailout for another four months. The Greek government has promised to continue with privatization plans and to meet budget targets. Still, the extension is a stop-gap measure and with sharp differences remaining between Greece and its creditors, the bailout crisis is far from over.
EUR/USD Technical
S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1154 1.1231 1.1340 1.1426 1.1525 1.1634
EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair posted gains in the European session but has since retracted, putting pressure on support at 1.1340.
1.1340 remains a weak support line. Will the pair break below this line during the day? 1.1231 is stronger.
1.1426 is an immediate resistance line.
Current range: 1.1340 to 1.1426
Further levels in both directions:
Below: 1.1340, 1.1231, 1.1154, 1.1066 and 1.0909
Above: 1.1426, 1.1525, 1.1634 and 1.1754
Janet Yellen testified before a Senate committee on Tuesday, saying that the Fed was “unlikely” to raise interest rates in the next few months, given current economic conditions. Her remarks seemed aimed at quelling rising speculation about a rate hike sometime in mid-2015, which has helped boost the US dollar’s performance against its major rivals. Yellen noted that the continuing growth should lead to the unemployment rate continuing to fall. The Fed Chair will resume testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, but it’s not likely that Yellen will say anything that could shake up the markets.
On the Eurozone front, Greece’s list of economic reforms was accepted by the country’s creditors on Tuesday, paving the way for an extension of the bailout for another four months. The Greek government has promised to continue with privatization plans and to meet budget targets. Still, the extension is a stop-gap measure and with sharp differences remaining between Greece and its creditors, the bailout crisis is far from over.
EUR/USD Technical
S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1154 1.1231 1.1340 1.1426 1.1525 1.1634
EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair posted gains in the European session but has since retracted, putting pressure on support at 1.1340.
1.1340 remains a weak support line. Will the pair break below this line during the day? 1.1231 is stronger.
1.1426 is an immediate resistance line.
Current range: 1.1340 to 1.1426
Further levels in both directions:
Below: 1.1340, 1.1231, 1.1154, 1.1066 and 1.0909
Above: 1.1426, 1.1525, 1.1634 and 1.1754
EUR/USD:
Support below 1.13 remains intact. Nothing new really - not even after Yellen.
Support below 1.13 (1.1288/62) remains unscathed and resistance (1.1450/11534) is distant in intraday term. Bide your time for better directional clues
Support below 1.13 (1.1288/62) remains unscathed and resistance (1.1450/11534) is distant in intraday term. Bide your time for better directional clues
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
EUR/USD:
In-range negative bias. The market remains well tucked in and refs at 1.1450/1.1499/1.1534 or preferably at 1.1278/1.1270/1.1262 must give way to show direction. A lower break would target a lower parallel/Equality point at 1.1185 next
Monday, February 23, 2015
EUR/USD trading on the 3 scenarios
1- “We don’t think EUR/$ will go much above 1.1450 in the event of scenario (i);
2- conversely, scenario (iii) would likely see substantial EUR/$ downside,
we pencil in a 5 big figure instantaneous drop in EUR/$ on announcement and then a continued sharp move lower in subsequent weeks (parity would not be out of the question),
not least since Grexit would represent a severe deflationary shock, to which the ECB could well respond with additional easing;
3- we see scenario (ii) as solidly in the direction of EUR/$ lower, with a drop of something like 2 big figures on ELA suspension and a continued drift lower in subsequent weeks,”
Conclusion:
“In short, we see risk-reward tilted firmly to the downside for EUR/$ from here….Our central case is that a compromise will be found, whereby we end up in scenario (i).
But the governance problems in the Euro area and the resulting growth crisis remain, which we think is the debate Europe (and markets) should be having,” GS concludes.
2- conversely, scenario (iii) would likely see substantial EUR/$ downside,
we pencil in a 5 big figure instantaneous drop in EUR/$ on announcement and then a continued sharp move lower in subsequent weeks (parity would not be out of the question),
not least since Grexit would represent a severe deflationary shock, to which the ECB could well respond with additional easing;
3- we see scenario (ii) as solidly in the direction of EUR/$ lower, with a drop of something like 2 big figures on ELA suspension and a continued drift lower in subsequent weeks,”
Conclusion:
“In short, we see risk-reward tilted firmly to the downside for EUR/$ from here….Our central case is that a compromise will be found, whereby we end up in scenario (i).
But the governance problems in the Euro area and the resulting growth crisis remain, which we think is the debate Europe (and markets) should be having,” GS concludes.
EUR/USD: Down in the major support zone
The unexpected (or rather premature given our long term target in the 1.07/11 area) break lower from the falling channel/wedge triggered a new round of impulsive selling, down into the 2012/2010 low area.
So currently being in the key support zone (next key support if passed = 1.1640),
outside both the 55 & 233d Bollinger bands and with a still persisting MACD divergence it wouldn’t be surprising to at least see a few days of congestion.
So currently being in the key support zone (next key support if passed = 1.1640),
outside both the 55 & 233d Bollinger bands and with a still persisting MACD divergence it wouldn’t be surprising to at least see a few days of congestion.
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