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What is Forex ?

WEEKLY FORECAST

It should test 1.1085 area after which a sell off down to 1.0610 or extended to 1.0402 area is expected.

EURUSD. As I mentioned on Friday, the bulls face a critical test to start the new week. In fact they face two critical tests should the first level fall.

The pair finished the week 30 pips below upper level resistance as shown in the chart below. This provides us an opportunity to watch for bearish price action early in the week.

If this level fails to hold we can turn our attention to the 1.1035 handle, a level that has acted as strong resistance on three separate occasions since mid March. Any bearish price action at this level could present a favorable selling opportunity, while a daily close above it could trigger a larger rally to 1.1250.

Summary: Watch for bearish price action at 1.0835 on a test of upper level resistance. If this level fails to hold watch for bearish price action on a retest of 1.1035. Key support comes in at 1.0655 and the multi-year low at 1.0470.
 It should test 1.1085 area after which a sell off down to 1.0610 or extended to 1.0402 area is expected.

EUR/USD Forecast:

Looking at the EUR/USD pair, you can see that the market did in fact fall again. If we can get below the 1.08 level, we feel that this market will then drop to the 1.05 level. With that, we are buying puts below there, but also recognize that there is the possibility of an ascending triangle forming so we do need to see that break down in order to feel comfortable buying puts at this point.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR-USD 8/04/2015 SELL EUR-USD @ 1.0880 TP 1.0830 SL ABOBE 1.0930"this month market will go down 1.0750.

The Easter holiday is fully over. As European traders return to their desks after a long weekend, they seem to have second thoughts about the USD sell-off that followed the very disappointing US Non-Farm Payrolls. EUR/USD slips down to 1.0870, basically erasing last week’s gains. A gain of only 126K was bad news for the US dollar. The world wide accurate forcaster said eur/usd pair may BUY mode.

EUR/USD Analysis:

I think that the USD  correction.
EUR-USD 7/04/2015 SELL EUR-USD @ 1.0940 TP 1.0910 SL ABOBE 1.0970"this month market will go down 1.0750.

EUR/USD Analysis:

I think that the USD  correction.
It may attempt a test higher to 1.1000 - 1.1010 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to 1.930 limit.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD: may be tested again at 1.1000?

I think USD may be weak.
EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.0880 with a high of 1.0940 and a low of 1.0845.After which a upside move is expected.The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change nagetive point.so Market moves upside treand.

EUR/USD Analysis:

I think that the USD still strong. It may attempt a test higher to 1.0790 - 1.0820 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to 1.0730 limit.

EUR/USD Forecast:

I assume that the USD could move higher soon.

EURUSD eventually reached the target of 1.07302 yesterday, the measured move from the break out of the rising wedge pattern. Price has now formed a falling price channel and looks to be currently testing the upper end of the channel. A test towards 1.0830 is evident and if successful as resistance, we could see further declines in the near term towards the target of 1.0605. However, should price break out of the falling channel and test back to the support at 1.07302, the view could shift to bullish upon break of the resistance at 1.0812

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

I think USD still strong. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.0790 with a high of 1.0895 and a low of 1.0712. After which a downside move is expected.

EUR/USD SIGNAL:

The EUR/USD pair target of the current correction was confirmed by local retracements. The closest target is the group of intermediate at 1.0700. After reaching it, the market may start a local pullback upwards.The long term target 1.0350.

EUR/USD news:

The US dollar managed to fight back and correct part of the correction. In the week that ends with Good Friday, we have a buildup towards the all important US Non-Farm Payrolls as well as Canadian GDP, US Consumer Confidence and more events. Join us as we explore the top events of this week.

The US labor market continued to improve with a decline in the number of jobless claims, reaching 282,000. Also inflation figures were OK and new home sales beat. However, the final GDP release for the fourth quarter of 2014 slightly disappointed remaining unchanged at 2.2%, below the 2.4% forecast and durable goods orders also fell short of predictions. In the euro-zone, we had upbeat data from Germany but that wasn’t enough for EUR/USD to settle over 1.10. In the UK, retail sales shined but inflation hit a round 0%, and cable is still looking for a direction. Japanese inflation also looks weak and could trigger action from the BOJ. The C$ was attentive to oil prices related to the crisis in Yemen, while the Aussie watched developments in China.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD: A bearish key day reversal candle. With a lower high in place the triangle congestion scenario still remains the most preferred outcome. Ideally the pair should have stalled at 1.0930 (78.6% of the preceding move) but as can be seen the market has had great difficulties holding above that level. With yesterday’s bearish key day reversal the next leg within the triangle is most likely underway and if our assumption is right we should see the 1.06-area being scrutinized next week.I think also till USD strong, so the EUR/USD DOWNTREND MOVEMENT.

EUR/USD Forecast:

I assume that the USD could move higher soon.
EURUSD eventually reached the target of 1.07302 yesterday, the measured move from the break out of the rising wedge pattern. Price has now formed a fallingprice channel and looks to be currently testing the upper end of the channel. A test towards 1.0830 is evident and if successful as resistance, we could seefurther declines in the near term towards the target of 1.0605. However, should price break out of the falling channel and test back to the support at1.07302, the view could shift to bullish upon break of the resistance at 1.0812

EUR/USD Analysis:

I think this point is return for USD.

EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.0880 with a high of 1.1010 and a low of 1.0804.After which a downside move is expected.

EUR/USD Technical

I think this point is return for USD.
EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.0950 with a high of 1.1005 and a low of 1.0880.

EUR/USD Analysis:

Support: 1.0400, 1.0350.
Resistance:1.0600, 1.0750.

EUR/USD Analysis:

Support: 1.0470, 1.0450.
Resistance:1.0600, 1.0620.

EUR/USD Technical Strategy:

Support: 1.0480, 1.0500.
Resistance:1.0560, 1.0600.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis:

Support: 1.0550, 1.0530.
Resistance:1.0660, 1.0700.

EUR/USD Technical Strategy:

Support: 1.0450, 1.0410.
Resistance:1.0550, 1.0580.

EUR/USD Technical Strategy:

Support: 1.0650, 1.0600.
Resistance:1.0730, 1.0750.

Bearish to neutral on EUR/USD

It is followed by 1.0760, which was the low point in both July and August 2003.
Market should not go lower than 1.0652. After this move down it should go up to 1.0974 area.

What is Forex ?

EUR/USD

The euro is under growing pressure now. A strongly bearish candle was posted yesterday which resulted in 100 pips of downside on the day and more importantly a close below the previous low at $1.1098. This move has taken the euro to its lowest level since 2003 and creates something of a void of support. It is below the 100% Fibonacci projection target of a 2011/2012 bear market at $1.1093 and now the next support is at $1.1000 which is psychological. The next real support does not come in until $1.0760 from way back in 2003, so there is very little to hold up the bears. The momentum indicators are bearish but also show further downside potential in the move. The intraday hourly chart also reflects this negative momentum with further downside. There is a minor reaction high overnight at $1.1085 and nothing overly significant until around $1.1150 so there is room for a technical rally. However any bounce would be a chance to sell.

EUR/USD Technical Strategy:

Support: 1.0970, 1.0796, 1.0623
Resistance:1.1185, 1.1318, 1.1533

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

S1          R1
1.1090 1.1100

Current level - 1.1046

The break through 1.1097 low signals a renewal of the general downtrend and the bias is negative below 1.1120 intraday resistance, for a tight test of 1.1000 sentiment zone. Crucial on the upside is 1.1240.

Major currencies exchange rate:

$EURUSD: 1.11686
EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1140 with a high of 1.1215 and a low of 1.1160.
$USDJPY: 119.74004
$GBPUSD: 1.53478
$AUDUSD: 0.781

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1196

The EUR/USD pair retraces from a daily high set at 1.1240 during the European session, reached after European data resulted up beating, with unemployment in the region down to 11.2% and inflation figures showing a slight improvement yearly basis.In the US, Personal Income and Spending figures missed expectations, although the dollar maintains its early gains against most of its rivals.
As for the short term in the EUR/USD, the pair trades above its 20 SMA while the Momentum indicator heads higher above 100 in the 1 hour chart, keeping the downside limited as long as the price holds above 1.1200. In the 4 hours chart however, the technical picture is clearly bearish with the 20 SMA heading lower around 1.1250 and the indicators losing their early upward strength well into negative territory, suggesting the upward corrective movement is complete, and that the pair is ready to resume the downside.

Support levels: 1.1200 1.1170 1.1130

Resistance levels: 1.1250 1.1285 1.1320

EUR/USD: Support to be tested again at 1.1160?

EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1184 with a high of 1.1240 and a low of 1.1160.

GBP/USD - British Pound / US Dollar

Entry: 1.54
Targets: 1.535 and 1.522
Stop: 1.544
Resistances: 1.5455 - 1.5435 - 1.5405
Supports: 1.53 - 1.5345 - 1.5375

EUROUSD latest analysis:

EUR/USD - Euro / US Dollar
Entry: 1.117
Targets: 1.11 and 1.1
Stop: 1.121
Resistances: 1.128 - 1.1225 - 1.119
Supports: 1.105 - 1.1105 - 1.1135

EURUSD Bear Bias Intact; March Risk Through 1.1000

A plunge lower as we have been anticipating over the past 1-2 weeks after another failure ahead of the firm 1.1445/50/51 resistance area.
The bearish resolution through support at 1.1279/70 and 1.1224 points to a bearish trend continuation.

Short-term - Downside Risks:
For early March we now see risk back to the 1.1098 low.
Into the month we aim still for the psychological and option target at 1.1000.

A taster of the report above. To view the full EURUSD report with screencasts, levels and more,

Forex market direction buy/sell signal

Friday signal for 27/2/2015/ buy trend on EUR/
USD now this currency is week buy now. 

EUROUDSD ANALYSIS

1. Greece's GDP falling in the fourth quarter could affect bailout policies
2. European February inflation figures negative, but does it matter now?
3. US fourth quarter GDP to be heavily revised down from 2.6% to 2%



Today’s data calendar is long and heavy with European releases, but none of them are hugely important for the markets. European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy-setting meeting next week (February 5) and the starts of the its bond purchase program should dominate next week, and this is probably keeping the EUR under pressure during the next couple of sessions as well. Next week also sees the latest monthly US employment report.

Greece Q4 Provisional Gross Domestic Production  Usually, Greek economic data has little chance of actually moving the major markets. However, with the Greek bailout negotiations dominating European politics and the possibility of forced exit from the EUR, it might be different this time.

Greece's GDP is expected to have decreased by 0.2% after increasing 0.7% in the previous quarter. This would still leave the year-on-year growth figure at 1.7%. It is difficult to say what effect the numbers would have on the markets - weak GDP growth could boost Greece’s negotiation position within the Eurogroup, but on the other hand it could also be interpreted as a sign that reforms and austerity have to be front-loaded.

Also, Greek banks’ loans to the private sector in January will be reported at 10:30 GMT. In December, they fell 3.1% year-on-year.

European February Flash Inflation report the flash consumer price indices for February. In contrast to Greece, Spain’s and Italy’s numbers could actually be important, as both countries are “too big to fail”, and Spain is holding national elections in December, with an anti-austerity left-wing Podemos currently running high in the polls.

Perhaps the markets might be fooled into thinking that deeper deflation could push the ECB to increase its efforts to maintain price stability, or that the European Commission could continue ignoring the budget deficits and violations of the European stability pacts. Thus, signs of a deeper deflation would be EUR-negative.

it is much more probable that the ECB will not change its policy plans, as it would be politically extremely difficult. The naysayers can always argue that the effects will come later, and finally, the latest monetary data from the Eurozone published yesterday suggest that the credit crunch is ending and money supply is increasing.

US Q4 Gross Domestic Production second estimate: The consensus forecast is for a notable downward revision to the last year’s GDP data: 2% growth, after the advance estimate of 2.6% growth. The main culprit for the negative revision is “international developments”, which have led to a stronger USD and weaker sales for US exporters. Also, inventory build-up is expected to have diminished, but that should only have an temporary effect.

Luckily, with improving labour markets and very confident consumers supporting the consumer spending, the GDP behind the headline numbers could be said to be healthier than the revision would suggest.

Yesterday the US January consumer price index showed prices had fallen by 0.1% from a year ago, but the core prices had held up well, and core durable goods orders were better-than-expected. While negative headline inflation is a nuisance, it does not necessarily stop the Federal Reserve from raising rates, perhaps as early as June, as long as the underlying fundamentals are in good shape.

To sum it up, the markets are now taking the possibility of the Fed’s rate hike seriously indeed, while the ECB’s actions are just about to begin. The EURUSD’s breakdown from its recent trading range suggests the pair should remain under selling pressure at least until next week’s ECB meeting. In my opinion the lower US bond yields are not a sign of a “dovish Fed”, but rather the result of yield hunting from global investors. Note that the US Treasury 10 year and 2-year yield spread is at its lowest point since mid-2012, the point of the worst of the euro crisis.

That is the consensus – but looking at the bigger picture, the economic surprise indices of the US and Eurozone show the divergence between the two is currently larger than it has been for years. I expect a reversal – US data should soon begin to surprise positively, while Europe should bring in negative surprises. 

EURUSD Alert

Market Running
Last:1.13645
Open:1.13628
High:1.13569
Low:1.13643
Day Range:1.14600 - 1.13300
Outlook:Netral
R1:1.1400
R2:1.1460
R3:1.1540
S1:1.1330
S2:1.1260
S3:1.1220
Short Term Trade :
-Buy If Break 1.14000 , Target : 1.14200 ; 1.14400
-Sell If Break 1.13300 , Target : 1.13100 ; 1.12900
Spekulasi :
-Buy On Weakness Area 1.12900 - 1.13000 , Target : 1.13200 ; 1.13400 , SL : 1.12600

EUR/USD Analysis

EUR/USD is calm on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.13 line in the European session. On the release front, there are no economic events out of the Eurozone, but ECB head Mario Draghi will testify about the ECB Annual Report in the European Parliament. In the US, Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen continues a second day of testimony in Congress. The US will release New Home Sales, with the markets expecting a softer reading in the January report.

Janet Yellen testified before a Senate committee on Tuesday, saying that the Fed was “unlikely” to raise interest rates in the next few months, given current economic conditions. Her remarks seemed aimed at quelling rising speculation about a rate hike sometime in mid-2015, which has helped boost the US dollar’s performance against its major rivals. Yellen noted that the continuing growth should lead to the unemployment rate continuing to fall. The Fed Chair will resume testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, but it’s not likely that Yellen will say anything that could shake up the markets.

On the Eurozone front, Greece’s list of economic reforms was accepted by the country’s creditors on Tuesday, paving the way for an extension of the bailout for another four months. The Greek government has promised to continue with privatization plans and to meet budget targets. Still, the extension is a stop-gap measure and with sharp differences remaining between Greece and its creditors, the bailout crisis is far from over.


EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1154 1.1231 1.1340 1.1426 1.1525 1.1634


EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair posted gains in the European session but has since retracted, putting pressure on support at 1.1340.
1.1340 remains a weak support line. Will the pair break below this line during the day? 1.1231 is stronger.
1.1426 is an immediate resistance line.
Current range: 1.1340 to 1.1426
Further levels in both directions:

Below: 1.1340, 1.1231, 1.1154, 1.1066 and 1.0909
Above: 1.1426, 1.1525, 1.1634 and 1.1754

EUR/USD:

 Support below 1.13 remains intact. Nothing new really - not even after Yellen.
Support below 1.13 (1.1288/62) remains unscathed and resistance (1.1450/11534) is distant in intraday term. Bide your time for better directional clues

EUR/USD:

In-range negative bias. The market remains well tucked in and refs at 1.1450/1.1499/1.1534 or preferably at 1.1278/1.1270/1.1262 must give way to show direction. A lower break would target a lower parallel/Equality point at 1.1185 next

EUR/USD trading on the 3 scenarios

1- “We don’t think EUR/$ will go much above 1.1450 in the event of scenario (i);

2- conversely, scenario (iii) would likely see substantial EUR/$ downside,
 we pencil in a 5 big figure instantaneous drop in EUR/$ on announcement and then a continued sharp move lower in subsequent weeks (parity would not be out of the question),
 not least since Grexit would represent a severe deflationary shock, to which the ECB could well respond with additional easing;
3- we see scenario (ii) as solidly in the direction of EUR/$ lower, with a drop of something like 2 big figures on ELA suspension and a continued drift lower in subsequent weeks,”
Conclusion:
“In short, we see risk-reward tilted firmly to the downside for EUR/$ from here….Our central case is that a compromise will be found, whereby we end up in scenario (i).
But the governance problems in the Euro area and the resulting growth crisis remain, which we think is the debate Europe (and markets) should be having,” GS concludes.

EUR/USD: Down in the major support zone

The unexpected (or rather premature given our long term target in the 1.07/11 area) break lower from the falling channel/wedge triggered a new round of impulsive selling, down into the 2012/2010 low area.
So currently being in the key support zone (next key support if passed = 1.1640),
outside both the 55 & 233d Bollinger bands and with a still persisting MACD divergence it wouldn’t be surprising to at least see a few days of congestion.

market analysis

ECB’s Draghi says European monetary union still incomplete.lack of structural reforms is a risk for Euro area; The strong US data sent EUR/USD to 1.1950.The EUR-negative sentiment should keep the selling pressures tight on EUR-complex on mounting probabilities for announcement of ECB QE as soon as January 22nd meeting.Traders remain mostly sellers on rallies.